Bay Area Sea Level Rise Analysis and Mapping

The Adapting to Rising Tides Program is partnering with the Metropolitan Transportation Commission to spearhead the development of integrated regional shoreline mapping and analysis products needed to support consistent sea level rise assessment and adaptation

The integrated regional shoreline mapping and analysis are robust and accurate mapping products that leverage the latest LiDAR topographic data sets, the FEMA San Francisco Bay Area Coastal Study and San Francisco Tidal Datums Study, and the regional shoreline delineation developed by the San Francisco Estuary Institute.

The ART regional mapping and shoreline analysis products depict areas at risk of temporary or permanent flooding due to sea level rise and extreme tides. They also show the shoreline locations and flowpaths that may contribute to the flooding.

Regional products include:

  • County specific sea level rise and extreme tide matrices that depict locally-relevant water levels and illustrate the “One Map, Many Futures” concept.
  • Inundation mapping for ten scenarios that capture over 90 combinations of future sea levels and extreme tide conditions.
  • Overtopping potential maps for all ten scenarios that depict where the Bay may overtop the shoreline. Coupled with the inundation maps, the overtopping potential maps help in identifying the shoreline locations and flowpaths that could lead to inland flooding.

Project Status

Sea level rise mapping and shoreline analysis had been completed for Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco and San Mateo Counties under previous efforts. These studies include: the Climate Change and Extreme Weather Adaptation Options for Transportation Assets in the Bay Area Pilot Project (December 2014) which was a partnership between MTC, BCDC, Caltrans District 4, and BART and focused on developing adaptation strategies for Alameda County; the BCDC-led Contra Costa Adapting to Rising Tides Project (underway) which looks at risk and vulnerability along the shoreline; the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission-led Sewer System Improvement Program; and San Mateo County’s Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment and Sea Change SMC initiative.  The current project addressed the need to complete the mapping and shoreline analysis for the remaining six counties and unify the existing data sets.

Mapping and analysis is now complete for all nine Bay Area counties and including updates to the previously completed county mapping and analysis to ensure seamless, unified regional mapping and analysis products. Mapbooks for each county are available on our Maps and Data Products Page and geodatabases for each county can be downloaded below.

The final project report is now available.  The report provides a summary of the sea level rise mapping scenarios, inundation mapping methods, stakeholder review process, and key findings for each county.  Key findings by county include a high-level overview of key vulnerabilities, especially in the near term, that may benefit from further examination. Each county section also presents a high-level discussion of SLR impacts to bridge approaches that may be of interest to the Bay Area Toll Authority to inform the selection of focus areas for future studies. Access the report here: BATA ART SLR Analysis and Mapping Report

For more information about available data please contact Eliza Berry:


Additional Findings and Materials

Alameda County Technical Report: Shoreline and Inundation Mapbooks (50MB) pdf_icon

Contra Costa County Technical Report: Shoreline and Inundation Mapbooks pdf_icon

Sea Level Rise & Overtopping Analysis for San Mateo County’s Bayshore (36MB) pdf_icon

San Francisco Sea Level Rise Mappingpdf_icon

Tidal Datums Technical Study (25MB) pdf_icon

Extreme Storms in San Francisco Bay – Past to Present (16MB) pdf_icon

Related Projects

Adapting to Rising Tides Alameda County Project

Adapting to Rising Tides Contra Costa Project

San Mateo County Inundation Scenarios Map Viewer

SFEI’s Flood Protection Infrastructure Mapping

Project Partners

The San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission’s Adapting to Rising Tides Program have partnered on this effort with AECOM’s Coastal Engineering team led by Kris May, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the State Coastal Conservancy, the San Francisco Estuary Partnership, the San Francisco Estuary Institute, Alameda County Flood Control and Water Conservation District and the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission.

For more information:

  • Eliza Berry
  • 415-352-3660